I'm reprinting an article below by Robert Creamer from the Huffington Post. It contains several truths about the reasons for the approaching "fiscal cliff" including how we got here and why we'll probably have to go over it.
In short, we got here because the Republican party has become great at obscuring truth and its members of Congress are more afraid of losing a primary challenge than they are of wrecking the economy.
Republicans control one of two houses of the legislative branch (and the Supreme Court). The Democrats hold the other house and the presidency. Republicans will hold the economy hostage by refusing to lift the debt limit without concessions and Democrats will allow it.
The debt limit is not a forward facing entity, so when Mitch (turtle-man) McConnell says "we're not giving the president a blank check" and therefore Republicans won't vote to lift the debt limit, the whole thing is a lie and a ruse. Congress has already authorized the spending which created the debt, the ceiling reflects the fact that they have spent more money than the treasury had, and therefore the difference must be borrowed, creating the "debt." Its like running up a tab on your credit card, and trying to act responsible by refusing to pay when Visa sends the bill. Its crazy, its dishonest, it has already caused the credit of the U.S. to be downgraded, but for Republicans, re-election is more important than the good of the country.
It can happen because there are enough ignorant Americans who cannot think rationally enough to see through this ploy. Cynical and dishonest, period.
Creamer argues that this condition is now acute because gerrymandering districts have created solid Republican districts where Republicans now fear being defeated in the primaries by Tea Partyists running to their right. Its why Marco Rubio, and educated man, cannot admit the existence of evolution or the true age of the earth. Its why climate change must be denied. Here's the article:
Often, economic crises are caused by real physical problems - like
draught, war, demography, or technological innovation that robs one
economy of a competitive advantage over another.
Other times, economic crises result when asset bubbles burst, or
financial markets collapse. That was the case of the Great Depression -
and more recently the Great Recession.
The economic crisis of the moment - the "fiscal cliff" - does
not result from any of these factors. In fact it is not a real
"economic crisis" at all, except that it could inflict serious economic
hardship on many Americans and could drive the economy back into
recession.
The "fiscal cliff" is a politically manufactured crisis. It
was original concocted by the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell
as a way to get past the last crisis manufactured by the Republicans -
the 2011 standoff over increasing the Federal Debt Ceiling.
Theoretically, "the cliff" - composed of increased taxes and
huge, indiscriminant cuts in Federal programs - would be so frightening
to policy makers that no one would ever consider allowing the nation to
jump.
Now, America is on the brink of diving off the cliff for one
and only one reason: many House Republicans are terrified of primary
challenges from the Tea Party right.
That's right, if your tax bill goes up $2,200 a year, or you're
one of the millions who would stop receiving unemployment benefits, the
cause of your economic pain is not some a natural disaster, or a major
structural flaw in the economy. The cause is Republican fear of being
beaten in a primary by people like Sarah Palin, Sharon Angel or Richard
Mourdock - funded by far Right Wing oligarchs like Sheldon Adelson and
the Koch Brothers. It's that simple.
Most normal Americans will have very little patience with
Republicans as they begin to realize that GOP Members of Congress are
willing to risk throwing the country back into a recession because they
are worried about being beaten in low turn out primaries by people who
do a better job than they do appealing to the extreme right fringe of
the American electorate - and to the far Right plutocrats that are all
too willing to stoke right wing passion and anger.
Nate Silver, of the New York Time's 538.com,
argues in a recent column that one of the reasons for this phenomenon is
the increasing polarization of the American electorate. That
polarization translates in to fewer truly "swing" Congressional seats
and an increasing number where Members are more concerned with primary
challenges than they are with losing in a general election. He concludes
that at this moment the number of solidly Republican seats is larger
the number of solidly Democratic seats.
This, he argues is partially a result of redistricting by
Republican legislatures that packed Democrats into a limited number of
districts in many states. But he also contends it results from
increasing polarization of the electorate in general. And it is due to
the fact that solidly Democratic urban areas have very high
concentrations of Democrats, where Republican performing areas tend to
have relatively lower concentrations of Republicans. These reasons help
explain why, even though Democrats got more votes in House races this
cycle than Republicans, Republicans still have more seats in the House.
Increased political polarization in the United States is not a
result of some accident or act of God. In 2006, political scientists
Nolan McCarty, Kevin T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal published a study of
political polarization called Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches. Their study found that there is a direct relationship between economic inequality and polarization in American politics.
They measured political polarization in congressional votes over
the last century, and found a direct correlation with the percentage of
income received by the top 1% of the electorate. It is no accident
that the years following the second World War, a period of low political
polarization, was also a period that economist Paul Krugman refers to
as the "great compression" -- with robust economic growth for most
Americans and reducing levels of economic inequality. In other words,
it turns out that if you want less political polarization, the best
medicine is reducing income inequality.
Of course, one of the other major factors feeding the GOP fear
of primaries is that, because of the Citizens United decision, far right
plutocrats can now inject virtually unlimited amounts of money into
primary races. Unlimited independent expenditures have so far been much
more successful in unseating incumbent Republican Members of Congress
than it has been winning General Elections.
In the end, of course the relatively more diluted presence of
Republicans in Republican districts - and the country's changing
demographics -- may allow Democrats to win many currently Republican
seats. What's more, Republican near term concern about primary
challenges - and the stridency it breeds -- may alienate increasing
numbers of moderate Republican leading independents. We've already
seen this effect in the Presidential and Senate races and it would not
be surprising that by 2014 many of the primary obsessed Republican
incumbents are hoisted on their own petard in the General Election.
Just ask Tea Party Members of Congress who were defeated in 2012, like
Alan West and Joe Walsh. But in the near term, at least, there is also
no question that many occupants of Republican seats appear far more
concerned with primary challenges than they are with general elections.
If House Speaker Boehner is to be successful passing any form of
compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" - either before the end of the
year or after - he will need to convince Republican Members of the House
that he is doing them a favor by bringing a bill the floor that can
pass even with many Republicans voting no. That, of course requires
that the deal is good enough to allow many Democrats to vote yes.
Boehner will get political cover for that kind of maneuver if a
bill passes out of the Senate with bi-partisan support. But even then,
he will certainly weigh whether he risks his otherwise certain
re-election as Speaker on January 3rd if he acts before the country goes
over the cliff at midnight, December 31.
Of course the many Republicans that will never support any form
of tax compromise don't justify their position by explaining they are
more concerned with primaries than they are of general elections. In
fact they generally fall back on one of three myths that are themselves
utter nonsense.
Myth #1 - You shouldn't tax the wealthy because they are "job creators".
The plain fact is that no one invests money in any business if they
do not think there are customers with money in their pockets to buy the
products or services they produce.
Customers with money in their pockets are "job creators" - and
the root of our current economic problems can be traced directly to the
fact that everyday consumers are receiving a smaller and smaller
percentage of the national economic pie and as a result have less
ability to to buy the increasing number of products and services our
economy can create. In fact, wages and salaries now make up the lowest
share of the nation's gross domestic product since the government
started keeping records in 1947. And corporate profits have climbed to
their highest levels since the 1960's.
Over the last two decades, per capita Gross Domestic Product
has gone up; productivity per hour of work has gone up; but the median
income of ordinary Americans has remained stagnant. That is only
possible because all of the growth in our economy has been siphoned off
by the top 2% of the population.
And it has meant that everyday people haven't had the money in
their pockets to buy the increased numbers of goods and services that
are the consequence of that increased productivity. Stagnation and slow
economic growth has been the result.
Henry Ford had this right. For the economy to grow over time,
workers need to be paid enough to buy the products they produce.
If you want the economy to grow, the fruits of economic growth
must be spread equally throughout the economy - if not consumers won't
have the money to buy and, as a consequence, investors won't invest.
Higher taxes on the wealthy - including higher estate taxes on
fortunes left to the sons and daughters of multi-millionaires - are not
"bad" for the economy - just the opposite. They help address the
economic inequality that is the core problem in our economy.
Myth #2 - Our biggest problem is the federal deficit.
This is just flat wrong. It is the economic equivalent of the medieval
view that you should "bleed" patients when they are sick.
We have learned from centuries of economic history, that when an
economy is recovering from a recession, the right medicine for sluggish
economic demand is more fiscal stimulus - and in the short run that
does not mean lower deficits.
More economic stimulus, of the type that the President proposed
in the American Jobs Act over a year ago, puts money in people's
pockets who can then spend it on more products and stimulate more
investment. Austerity and reducing national debt will yield the same
outcome we have recently seen in Europe - another recession. And that
is exactly what the deficit hawks are likely to get if America slides of
the fiscal cliff and stays there.
Right Wing deficit hawks are fond of warning that if we don't
cut the deficit, the country could turn into Greece - or some other
European country that can't pay it's bills. They ignore the fact that
right now U.S. Treasury Bonds are considered the safest investments in
the world, and interest rates are at a record low. They also ignore the
fact that, unlike the Europeans, the American Federal Reserve can
monetize the federal debt and assure that U.S. bond holders are always
paid -- unless, of course, the Republicans refuse to pay the debts that
we owe, which would be like committing economic Hara-Kiri.
In fact, the quickest way for America to become like Europe is a
precipitous reduction of the federal spending. Ask the Brits how that
worked out.
Finally, of course, let's remember that the way to reduce the
deficit is not an inscrutable mystery. When Democrat Bill Clinton was
President he did it, just a few short years ago. The recipe for success
involved two factors: increasing revenue, especially from the wealthy,
and growing the economy.
Today we would have to add, the need to control the spiraling
increase in health care costs. While ObamaCare will make big steps in
that direction, much more will be needed. Shifting costs to seniors and
other consumers by cutting Medicare or Medicaid benefits is not
controlling health care costs - it is simply shifting them from
government to individuals. And what is needed is not more de-regulation
of for-profit health care companies. In fact we ultimately need to
follow the model of the Canadians - and most of the other industrial
nations in the world - and provide a universal Medicare coverage to all
Americans. Our system of private health insurance is simply too
expensive. Americans, after all, pay 40% more than any other country
per capita for health care and have outcomes that rank only 37th in the
world.
Myth #3 - Government is always bad and- as Grover Norquist argues - must be shrunk so it can be drowned in a bathtub.
Let's ignore for a moment the fact that while Republicans talk
about small government, they inevitably expand it when they control the
White House - mostly in the form of larger military budgets.
Government, as Congressman Barney Frank says, is the name we
give to the things we choose to do together--and that includes many of
the most important things we do in our economy. From fire and police
protection to providing free public education and health care for all,
to building public infrastructure, to creating the Internet - government
does a better, more efficient, more equitable job in many economic
arenas than the private sector.
To hear the Republicans talk you wouldn't know it, but right now taxes are at their lowest levels since 1958.
Right now in America we need more government - more education,
more roads and bridges, more mass transportation, more cancer research,
more health care, more nutrition programs, more drug education and
treatment - not less. More government shouldn't mean more regulation of
our freedom - it should mean that when we co-operate together we have
the ability to achieve more than if everyone is left to sink or swim.
Government action is necessary to provide the foundation from which each
person can individually excel.
The question of the type of society we want in America was
squarely on the ballot in the election last November, and voters
overwhelming voted for a society where we have each other's back - where
we're all in this together, not all in this alone.
Progressives need to make all of these arguments to win the
battle for the future. But let's remember that the unwillingness of
most Republicans to compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" - or anything
else - has less to do with their commitment to their ultra right
principles than to the protection of their own political hides.
That being the case, there are only two ways to convince
Republicans to compromise. One is to demonstrate that their obsession
with primary challenges from the right will ultimately lead them to
defeat in General Elections. The second is to defeat them so badly in
the next General Election that they no longer have the power to impose
the will of an extremist minority on the people of the United States.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and
strategist, and author of the book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives
Can Win, available on Amazon.com. He is a partner in Democracy Partners and a Senior Strategist for Americans United for Change. Follow him on Twitter
Monday, December 31, 2012
Thursday, December 27, 2012
That dang cliff
I haven't published but one short entry since my mom fell and spent 3 weeks in hospital-like places until her death on December 1st. Partly from being drained, partly just empty. She was a fine lady.
I do have to note that the "fiscal cliff" is approaching and Speaker Boehner can't get further concessions from the president nor can he get any cooperation from his tea party contingents. He had to pull a bill last week that he introduced which would have increased taxes on those earning one million or more because those wacky tea partyists wouldn't go for it.
And although Obama ran his campaign on a roll-back of the Bush tax cuts for those earning $250,000 and earned a decisive victory over that Mitt-droid guy, and although democrats gained both Senate and House seats, the Republicans still control the House (even though there were more than a million more democratic votes than republican votes, the retention due to gerrymandering), the tea party still knows whats best for America: continual hostage-holding and possible down-grading of US debt and/or default.
I wonder if the Koch brothers yet realize what they have birthed in the Tea Party. It seems as if voters have (note the losses by Allen West, Joe Walsh, Mourdock and Todd Akins) but the monster is only weakened, not dead yet.
Paul Krugman says it's better to go over the cliff than continually giving up Democratic principles. By this time next week we may know.
I do have to note that the "fiscal cliff" is approaching and Speaker Boehner can't get further concessions from the president nor can he get any cooperation from his tea party contingents. He had to pull a bill last week that he introduced which would have increased taxes on those earning one million or more because those wacky tea partyists wouldn't go for it.
And although Obama ran his campaign on a roll-back of the Bush tax cuts for those earning $250,000 and earned a decisive victory over that Mitt-droid guy, and although democrats gained both Senate and House seats, the Republicans still control the House (even though there were more than a million more democratic votes than republican votes, the retention due to gerrymandering), the tea party still knows whats best for America: continual hostage-holding and possible down-grading of US debt and/or default.
I wonder if the Koch brothers yet realize what they have birthed in the Tea Party. It seems as if voters have (note the losses by Allen West, Joe Walsh, Mourdock and Todd Akins) but the monster is only weakened, not dead yet.
Paul Krugman says it's better to go over the cliff than continually giving up Democratic principles. By this time next week we may know.
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